| Volatility Curve | Open | Close | Δ |
|---|
| Volatility Curve | Open | Close | Δ |
|---|
| Volatility Curve | Open | Close | Δ |
|---|
Vol regime distribution
Log sessions to see analysis
Price / CVOL regime
Log sessions to see analysis
CVOL index ranges
Log sessions to see analysis
CVOL Volatility Curve — Definitions & Regime Framework
Living document · updated as understanding develops
Shanghai
01:00 – 08:00 UTC
09:00 – 16:00 CST
8pm – 3am ET (prev day)
Asia CVOL
00:00 – 08:00 UTC
CVOL opens ~10:35pm ET
Closes 3:00am ET
London
08:00 – 14:00 UTC
3:00am – 9:00am ET
08:00 – 14:00 BST (summer)
New York
14:00 – 00:00 UTC
9:00am – 4:44pm ET
14:00 – 21:44 BST (summer)
Volatility curve — line definitions
Headline implied volatility for Gold. 30-day forward risk expectation derived from the entire options curve using simple variance.
Higher = more uncertainty priced in. Primary session context line.
Downside variance from put options. What the market is paying to hedge bearish moves.
Down Var > Up Var = institutional downside hedging. Bearish directional lean.
Upside variance from call options. What the market is paying for bullish exposure.
Up Var > Down Var = bullish options positioning. Upside directional lean.
UpVar minus DnVar. Positive = upside more expensive. Negative = downside protection more expensive.
Directional lean from the options market before price moves.
UpVar divided by DnVar. Above 1.0 = upside skewed. Below 1.0 = downside skewed.
Normalised skew — useful for comparing across different vol regimes.
At-the-money volatility — implied vol of options closest to current price. Traditional single-point vol measure.
CVOL typically trades at a premium to ATM as it captures full curve including tails.
CVOL divided by ATM. Measures tail risk premium — how much extra vol is priced for extreme moves.
Rising convexity = increasing fear of tail events beyond normal range.
Gold spot price (XAUUSD) at time of CVOL reading. Maps vol behaviour against price action.
Essential for reading Price/CVOL regime — the relationship between price direction and vol direction.
Price / CVOL regime
Price ↑ CVOL ↓
Healthy trend
Market comfortable with the move. Slow institutional accumulation. Options not hedging aggressively. Trend continuation likely.
Best quality setups occur here.
Price ↑ CVOL ↑
Blow-off / squeeze
Often near tops or violent rallies. Options traders buying upside gamma aggressively. Move may extend but sharp reversal risk elevated.
Treat entries with caution.
Price ↓ CVOL ↑
Risk-off / liquidation
Hedging, panic selling, forced positioning. Down Var typically dominant. Moves can accelerate rapidly. Inventory imbalances likely carried forward.
Do not fade without confirmation.
Price ↓ CVOL ↓
Distribution / exhaustion
Selling pressure fading. Options market no longer pricing fear into downside. Often leads to reversal zones.
Watch for inventory resolution signals.